Industrial Real Estate Market News 2nd Qtr 2010 - Tick Tock

Atlanta Industrial Real Estate Market Trends 2nd Quarter 2010 The Atlanta distribution market now sits with 21 percent of its 512 million square foot inventory available for lease or for sale. Since the official onset of this latest recession in December of 2007, 30 million square feet have been added to the availability column. The current 107 million square feet available represents a 38% increase over the available square footage before the recession began.

Take into consideration that spec construction accounts for a mere three million square feet of that shift in availability and we’re looking at 27 million square feet returned to the market in the 10 quarter period since the recession began. The slow down in spec construction has reduced the percentage of new space to only eight percent – significantly down from the 19.4 percent seen at the end of 2007.

It’s also interesting to note that approximately 10 percent of all available space is on the market as a sublease opportunity. We are likely to see rates being held artificially low as long as this level of sublease space remains on the market.

Although, in a statement released in April, the National Bureau of Economic Research agreed that most economic indicators had turned up, they thought it premature to announce an end to the recession. Our analysis of the Atlanta industrial market also shows signs of hope as the downward trend appears to be slowing.

In looking at the 10 quarters endured during this recession, net absorption has averaged –2,833,792 square feet. Second quarter 2010 net absorption came in at –1,829,349 square feet; negative, but better than the average we have seen. Activity held steady at 8,575,662 square feet this quarter; right in line with the 8,892,958 square foot average during this recession. With activity holding and net absorption improving, it is a sign that the upheaval in tenant stability may be subsiding.

The trends appear to show a beginning of the end of this difficult cycle. Historically, the industrial real estate market recovers 18 months after the end of a recession. The bottom line is that tenants and buyers continue to have many opportunities . . . but the clock is ticking.

Submarket trends and summaries can be downloaded instantly here